False Favourites - How to identify them using PR Ratings.
False Favourites - How to identify them using PR Ratings.
There has been a lot written about horse racing favourites and how to identify them and in this article, I want to show you how you can use PR Ratings to help you solve the puzzle.
PR Ratings has around 70 columns of information to help you cross reference form and other information across every runner in a race…
…But for this article, we are going to uses just 6 pieces of information.
1. DRS % (This is based on the runner's previous form in a similar race). 2. Jockey Stats 3. Trainer stats 4. Won at going? 5. MR (Ratings) 6. Ratings (PR)
With just these 5 pieces of information, we can get a clearer picture of how strong this favourite is.
Before I go through an explanation I would like to add this disclaimer:
Favourites sometimes win when “on paper” they just shouldn’t!
A favourite is a favourite for some reason and sometimes it just doesn’t make sense, but they still go on to win.
So, if you use this idea to pick favourites to take on as a “lay-bet” then make sure you are well aware of the risks!
DRS %
I created this rating from a tool I created called “Daily Race Stats”.
This tool looks at a runner past performance based on the following.
Course Distance Race Type Number of runners Going Class Course Direction Jockey Official Rating Weight.
It looks at the race the runner is in today and compares it to past performance based on the above data.
This is turned into a %.
Jockey stats This is the Jockeys strike rate and similar events
Trainer Stats This is the trainer strike rate at similar events.
MR Rating.
This is my own rating that I created using a number of other form info.
Rating.
And this is another of my own ratings that I created using a number of statistics based on the race and runner.
Now we have some information to use we can start looking at the field.
The goal is to use the information to score each runner against the favourite to see whether there is a reason to suggest we can go against them.
Generally, the “Rating” figure should point to the early favourite.
If it doesn’t then immediately we have to question the favourite.
You will find often the favourite has a rating that is high into the 100’s but other times all runners have lower figures.
So, I have recorded this video to show how you can use PR Ratings to help you find false favourites.
If you think about it only about 36 % of favourites win races so all we ate trying to do is identify the strong or the weak ones so hopefully we can do better than the statistics.
